Going to take a stab at this. I don't believe this is HCE. HCE involves an action a player takes without the opponent's permission, involving a card that hasn't been legally revealed to all players. It's most definitely not LEC, because the card was legally revealed.
I believe this is a GRV and FtMGS. Nigel incorrectly resolved Goblin Guide's trigger, which led to a revealed card being placed in Nigel's hand. The IPG provides a partial fix of placing Fiery Conclusion back on top of Nigel's library, but now Nigel has drawn an unknown card when he should have drawn Fiery Conclusion.
The situation with the extra card, while not an actual HCE because it was caused by the GRV, can be fixed by treating it as HCE. Unfortunately, this requires the Thoughtseize fix. This early in the game, allowing the opponent to grab Nigel's best card and shuffle it into his library will potentially give an undue amount of advantage (as I understand it, it's a somewhat common practice to avoid the Thoughtseize fix if an error can be treated as GRV). Leaving the extra card in Nigel's hand also gives an undue amount of advantage.
I would make a slight deviation here and backup to the GRV infraction, choosing a card at random to be put on top of Nigel's library (under Fiery Conclusion), unless there is a strong likelihood of Nigel's library being shuffled in the next turn. There's a good chance I'm performing a backup to the GRV. If no backup, no fix. Warnings for both players.
Edited Joseph Dunlap (March 1, 2018 12:29:08 PM)