Yes, that's correct.
If he bins the new Thassa, then when the Evolve trigger starts to resolve the referenced permanent isn't around anymore, so we need to use last-known information to determine its characteristics. When it was last on the battlefield, it was indeed a creature (he had 5 devotion) with sufficient power or toughness, and so the evolve trigger will resolve.
On the other hand, if the old Thassa gets binned, then when the Evolve trigger starts to resolve the referenced permanent is still on the battlefield, but it isn't a creature anymore, so the intervening-if of evolve fails: the power and toughness on Thassa are undefined, so they are treated as 0.
Edited Vincent Roscioli (March 25, 2014 06:33:40 PM)